31-05-2013, 07:22 AM
Numbers are dangerous things.
Statistics even more so.
Just suppose that my DNA was on file.
A legal expert states in court that the chances of both me and a murder having the same DNA is one in a million.
Am I guilty beyond reasonable doubt??
If one in a million means that that for both parties there is a 1 in 1,000 chance of having that DNA type then.
There would be 6,000 suspects spread across Scotland and another 50,000 plus in England.
I plead (still hypothetically) not guilty. The court should demand extra evidence before convicting on this type of evidence.
For move analysis. Perhaps Ivanov owns and plays against Houdini. It would be valid for Ivanov to know when siting down for a tournament game that Houdini rates I e4 above 1 d4 and that against the Sicilian best moves are 2 Nf3 and 3 d4 and 4 Nxd4. That would be 10% of a game with perfect matches. If he is a 2000 plus player he will probably memorise longer lines than that.
Future cheats (inevitably this will happen) would be well advised to play the English.
No winner of the UK lottery winner ever gets investigated even though the odds of selecting the correct 6 numbers is 1 in 14,000,000. I have heard many stories over the years of winners who used their relative's birthdays to choose their lottery numbers. That explanation would simply not stand up in court.
Back to statistics.
In writing the above I am 95% certain that I am correct.
Statistics even more so.
Just suppose that my DNA was on file.
A legal expert states in court that the chances of both me and a murder having the same DNA is one in a million.
Am I guilty beyond reasonable doubt??
If one in a million means that that for both parties there is a 1 in 1,000 chance of having that DNA type then.
There would be 6,000 suspects spread across Scotland and another 50,000 plus in England.
I plead (still hypothetically) not guilty. The court should demand extra evidence before convicting on this type of evidence.
For move analysis. Perhaps Ivanov owns and plays against Houdini. It would be valid for Ivanov to know when siting down for a tournament game that Houdini rates I e4 above 1 d4 and that against the Sicilian best moves are 2 Nf3 and 3 d4 and 4 Nxd4. That would be 10% of a game with perfect matches. If he is a 2000 plus player he will probably memorise longer lines than that.
Future cheats (inevitably this will happen) would be well advised to play the English.
No winner of the UK lottery winner ever gets investigated even though the odds of selecting the correct 6 numbers is 1 in 14,000,000. I have heard many stories over the years of winners who used their relative's birthdays to choose their lottery numbers. That explanation would simply not stand up in court.
Back to statistics.
In writing the above I am 95% certain that I am correct.